Brian Finucane, senior program adviser of the International Crisis Group think tank, believes US and UK attacks won’t deter Houthi aggression as they are supported by Iran and have withstood years of bombings from Saudi-led coalition.
These attacks followed an American-led warning to the Houthis that any attacks against shipping could lead to consequences, and that their repeated acts of aggression will have serious repercussions.
The Houthis are a threat to everyone.
The Houthis represent an existential threat to US allies who depend on global maritime supply chains. Despite limited resources, this Iran-backed group has shown it can still significantly disrupt global commerce through endangering shipping routes in Red Sea and Suez Canal which account for 10% of world trade. Furthermore, their repeated attacks against merchant ships without Israeli links demonstrate they will use missile and drone capabilities against international shipping – showing their strength and defiance while diverting attention away from internal governance challenges and strengthening their image as important regional actors.
The US-led coalition has responded to Houthis threats with warships to protect shipping lanes and new strikes announced. But they aren’t alone – UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak believes airstrikes against Houthis are necessary and proportionate, degrading their ability to attack ships with impunity.
But the question still stands: Will these military efforts deter Houthis? Unfortunately, not. Houthis pose a significant threat to international security and maritime trade and can only be reduced through long-term efforts to strengthen Yemeni government forces so they can defeat rebels militarily while rebuilding Yemen – something airstrikes won’t achieve alone.
Understanding why the Houthis pose such a significant threat to US interests is paramount. Iran uses them as a proxy force in the Middle East and beyond, and we must address their threat against our allies. Luckily, there are ways for the US and its allies to do this that do not involve bombing: by strengthening Yemeni and regional partners to weaken Houthi positions while simultaneously eliminating Iran’s primary regional proxy force in Yemen and beyond.Airstrikes aren’t the answer.
On Friday, the US and Britain bombed several sites in Yemen containing missile, radar and drone infrastructure used by Houthis militia members to launch attacks against commercial shipping in Red Sea waters. Their goal was to limit Iran-backed groups such as Houthis’ ability to threaten international ships transiting Bab al-Mandeb. Unfortunately, Houthi attacks continued despite these bombs; perhaps they are gearing up for another campaign?
The United States requires a viable strategy to stop attacks. While this may sound straightforward, achieving lasting peace requires more than simply shooting down missiles or eliminating Houthi fighters; rather it must alter Houthi calculations, so they realize the cost outweighs its benefit – something the Biden administration has struggled to do effectively so far.
Airstrikes may backfire; creating additional risks and inciting Houthi retaliation against them – potentially sparking an escalated conflict that the White House wants to avoid. Iraq and Syria provide an instructive example, with U.S. airstrikes failing to restore deterrence effectively through airstrikes alone.
What the United States requires from Yemen and Iran is a diplomatic solution that addresses both root causes and consequences of Red Sea conflict. Such an approach should involve all involved, from Yemen and Iran, but must also include efforts to end violence in Gaza, and address Israel?s conflict with Palestinians broader resolving it with them in Gaza? ideally progress on such issues would enable a face-saving exit for both parties involved in Red Sea dispute as a whole.
On Saturday morning, two typhoons launched from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus were carrying weapons to support the United States-led coalition in Yemen. This campaign seeks to prevent Iran-backed Houthis from harassing international maritime traffic in the Red Sea; there may be more effective means of doing this than sending in air forces.The US goal of de-escalation isn’t working.
The US, together with Britain and Australia, conducted air strikes against targets in Yemen used for manufacturing and testing missiles used against commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Support was provided by forces from Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand and South Korea as part of an effort to degrade Houthi missile and radar capabilities while protecting mariners who use one of the world’s key shipping lanes.
US defense officials claim these attacks were necessary as a response to Houthi missile and drone attacks, which have claimed four American lives and injured two more since they seized an US-flagged vessel, the Galaxy Leader, in November. Furthermore, these attacks have disrupted global trade across Red Sea; thus further complicating trade transactions there. US Central Command warned Houthis of additional consequences should they continue interfering with maritime navigation.
Critics argue that Biden administration’s airstrikes run contrary to their stated goal of de-escalation and do nothing to address Israel’s ongoing military assault on Gaza, which they view as the root cause. Furthermore, they posit that these strikes will increase Houthis popularity at home and throughout the region.
Houthis are a Shiite minority who perceive Israel, the US and Westerners generally as their adversaries, vowing not to stop attacking until Israel fully ends its conflict in Gaza. While the US along with Saudi Arabia and UAE has attempted to bring Houthis back for negotiations but they have refused.
Contrary to what US officials claim, many observers doubt the strikes will do much to deter Houthi fighters. After years of fighting a Western-backed, Saudi-led coalition coalition and receiving significant support both in Yemen and elsewhere throughout the Middle East, they show no sign of ending attacks against maritime traffic or ceasing their threat of firing upon ships – leading experts warn that further actions might need to be taken by the United States in order to force Houthis change their ways.- The US goal of de-escalation isn’t working
White House officials had made clear their disapproval of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping by drone and missile attacks, prompting some of the world?s biggest shippers to steer clear and lengthen their routes by thousands of miles in order to protect themselves and trade. If such attacks continued there would be serious repercussions.
President Biden convened his National Security Team and was presented with options for military response on Thursday. On Friday morning, US and British airstrikes targeted 16 Iranian-backed Houthi militant locations using 100 precision-guided munitions; targeting command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities and radar sites according to Central Command officials.
Although destruction was extensive, no civilian casualties occurred in the initial wave of strikes. A second wave then targeted 12 additional sites.
Houthi spokespersons responded to the US strikes by accusing it of violating Yemen?s sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as attacking civilians in Sana’a and other cities. Furthermore, they stated that these attacks violate international law as war crimes crimes while asserting that without supplies for defence of their communities from their enemies it will become necessary for Houthis forces to fight back in self-defence.
Houthis are Sunni Islamist groups with deep links to Iran. Iran has empowered and strengthened them further, making it more difficult to convince them to reconsider their policies. A massive amount of violence will likely be necessary before nonstate actors realize they cannot reach their goals through coercion alone and that military measures may be more efficient in reaching them.
Instead of helping bring all parties to the negotiating table to find an equitable compromise solution, the United States has fallen into an irresponsible trap by conducting these raids. Additional strikes are almost certain to follow suit and escalate further conflict across Iraq and Syria – with Iran and Houthi militia groups likely benefitting most from further strikes; such action could put innocent lives worldwide at risk.
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